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Breaking down the Mets’ playoff odds as MLB season enters final week

Even though the Mets no longer control their own playoff destiny, at least one leading model still projects them to make the postseason.

Ever so slightly.

FanGraphs pegs the Mets’ playoff odds at 51.4%, a fluid number that the website calculated by running simulations of the remaining MLB schedule.

Of course, games are played on the field, not inside computers, which is why nothing really matters other than how the Mets and the teams around them perform over the season’s final week.

“We’ve just got to win,” first baseman Pete Alonso said after Sunday’s 3-2 loss to the Washington Nationals. “It’s simple. Winning solves everything at this point. We’ve just got to do it. That’s it. We’ve got to solve our issues between the lines.”

The Mets (80-76) are tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the third and final National League wild card spot, but the red-hot Reds hold the tiebreaker after winning the head-to-head season series.

That means the Mets must finish at least a game better than the Reds to top them in the standings. FanGraphs gives the Reds a 41.9% chance of making the postseason.

And then there’s the Arizona Diamondbacks (79-77), who, despite selling at the trade deadline, are a game behind the Mets and Reds. The D-Backs also hold the tiebreaker over the Mets and have 6.2% playoff odds, per FanGraphs.

The Mets were 45-24 on June 12, and at the time, FanGraphs gave them a 96.2% chance of making the playoffs. But the Mets are just 35-52 since then, with Sunday’s loss being their 11th in the last 15 games.

“We put ourselves in this position, so we’ve got to find a way to get out of it,” shortstop Francisco Lindor said. “And that comes down to winning.”

If the Mets are to clinch a playoff spot, they’ll have to do so on the road, just like they did last year. All that remains on their schedule is a three-game series in Chicago against the Cubs that begins Tuesday, followed by a three-game series in Miami against the Marlins.

Entering Monday, the Mets’ upcoming opponents had a combined winning percentage of .526, giving them MLB’s 12th-hardest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon.

The Cubs (88-68) are fighting to lock down the top NL wild card spot, which would give them home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The San Diego Padres were three games behind them to begin Monday, giving the Cubs plenty to play for, especially after being swept by the Reds over the weekend.

Chicago is set to throw three strong starters at the Mets, with Cade Horton (11-4, 2.66 ERA), Matthew Boyd (13-8, 3.20 ERA) and Shota Imanaga (9-7, 3.37 ERA) in line to pitch. The Mets are opening the series with David Peterson (9-6, 3.98 ERA).

Meanwhile, the Marlins (76-80) have won six games in a row and 10 of their last 11, making them a dangerous opponent despite their losing record.

Miami took three of four from the Mets at Citi Field at the end of August.

The Reds have a slightly easier remaining schedule (.519) than the Mets, beginning with a three-game series at home against the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates.

Cincinnati has to face Paul Skenes (10-10, 2.03 ERA), the NL Cy Young frontrunner, on Wednesday, but the Reds are set counter that day with their own flame-throwing phenom in Hunter Greene (7-4, 2.74 ERA).

The Reds will then end the season with a three-game series on the road against the MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers.

It’s possible, however, that the Brewers won’t have much to play for. They entered Monday with a three-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies for MLB’s best record, meaning they could clinch home-field advantage through the playoffs before the Reds series.

“We’ve been through a lot as a team together. Injuries. Struggling together,” Reds utilityman Gavin Lux said after Sunday’s win, which was Cincinnati’s fifth in a row. “We’ve had some highs, a lot of lows, and I think to get hot right now, it’s great. We deserve it. We’ve grinded it out, and we’re seeing the rewards at the end here. But we’ve got to finish it.”

The Diamondbacks have MLB’s third-hardest remaining schedule (.554), with a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers starting Tuesday, followed by a three-game set against the Padres in San Diego over the weekend.

The Dodgers are trying to nail down an NL West title and entered Monday with a three-game lead over the Padres. San Diego could be locked into the second NL wild card spot by the time the D-Backs come to town.

Missing the postseason would be a major disappointment for a Mets team with a $339 million payroll after advancing to the NLCS last year and adding superstar Juan Soto in the offseason.

The Mets had a four-game cushion for a wild card spot as recently as Sept. 7.

“We’ve got to keep going,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “We’ve got six more, and a lot can happen.”



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