By JON GAMBRELL
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Saudi Arabia’s crown prince wasn’t in the room for the first high-level talks between Russia and the United States over Moscow’s war on Ukraine on Tuesday, but Mohammed bin Salman still won the day for hosting the gathering that could be a game-changer in the bloody conflict.
The assertive 39-year-old heir to the throne in the oil-rich kingdom already has taken over Saudi Arabia as its de facto leader under his father, the 89-year-old King Salman. But the prince’s war in Yemen and the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which U.S. intelligence agencies believe came at his orders, tarnished his reputation internationally.
Crown Prince Mohammed now finds himself at the center of the Trump administration’s outreach to Russia, a country Saudi Arabia carefully maintained ties to during the war through the OPEC+ oil cartel.
The prince likely caught President Donald Trump’s attention when he announced plans for a $600 billion investment in the United States — prompting the U.S. leader’s musings about whether to make Saudi Arabia the location for his first foreign trip in this term.
And with Trump suggesting his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin — something Moscow hopes can bring it in from the cold of Western nations — will take place in Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed is likely to remain a top player.
As the summit opened, the state-run Saudi Press Agency announced that “upon directives from” the royal, talks between Russia and the U.S. are taking place in Riyadh as “part of the kingdom’s ongoing efforts to promote global security and peace” — firmly putting Prince Mohammed’s fingerprints on the proceedings.
Risks remain for the prince’s strategy
The strategy still holds risks for Prince Mohammed, particularly as the shaky ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war that ravaged the Gaza Strip remains in question.
Trump’s repeated comments that he wants the U.S. to “own” Gaza have inflamed the Arab world. The Palestinians want Gaza and the West Bank for a future state, something backed by nearly all of the international community.
Also, Saudi state media in recent days have openly criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — something that was avoided while Prince Mohammed weighed a possible diplomatic recognition deal with Israel under the Biden administration.
The idea of an American ownership of Gaza — whatever that would mean exactly — has similarly angered Saudis who support the Palestinians. The Saudi Foreign Ministry, in a reaction to Trump’s initial remarks, said its “unwavering position is nonnegotiable and not subject to compromises.”
But the kingdom did not criticize Trump directly.
Then there’s Trump longstanding criticism of OPEC+, in which Saudi Arabia remains the top power. In January, Trump claimed the alliance’s price cuts would be able to “automatically stop the tragedy that’s taking place in Ukraine.”
“One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and to drop the price of oil, because they have it nice and high,” Trump said.
However, global oil prices are down from highs of over $120 a barrel in 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, to around $75 a barrel today. The lower prices threaten Prince Mohammed’s ambitious projects, including his vision of the futuristic city of Neom, priced at $500 billion.
Peace push eases the burden on Saudi Arabia
During years in the cold after the Khashoggi killing, both Russia and China offered Saudi Arabia and Prince Mohammed the cachet of being respected by Moscow and Beijing, bypassing persistent human rights concerns of the West. Prince Mohammed has hosted and spoken by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin.
Then, a 2023 Chinese-mediated deal on the kingdom reestablishing ties with Iran gave Prince Mohammed a new opportunity to show the U.S. that others can shape Mideast politics. It also eased a major security concern for the kingdom after a likely Iranian attack in 2019 temporarily halved the kingdom’s oil production.
What the kingdom perceived as a slow American response to that attack has prompted Saudi Arabia to hedge its risks through outreach to Western friends and foes alike.
In the Saudi-owned, London-published newspaper Asharq Al Awsat, journalist Mishari al-Dhaidi described Tuesday’s U.S.-Russia summit as “restoring dialogue between the two poles of the world.”
He called it “a major step on the international political chess arena, revealing the status of Saudi Arabia and its positive influence for the benefit of the people all the people.”
Flowery language aside, Prince Mohammed’s strategy appears to be working — regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s meeting.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delayed a Saudi Arabia visit planned for Wednesday, saying he’ll travel there in March.
Trump himself may turn up sooner or later, which the crown prince would welcome.
“We would be more than glad to work with you and with President Trump and his administration,” the crown prince said Monday night while meeting U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “I believe you can work with us, Saudi Arabia, and for many countries around the world.”
EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and wider world since joining the AP in 2006.
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